Just eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while the Villa manager admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, Emery ripped off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa appear strangely fragile – but currently the margins are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for Rogers to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots into the net's top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.
This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As Rogers faced the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.