Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
